By: Todd Wheatley
(c) IQ-2k _   08-03-19

Weather patterns ease the job of prediction and are somewhat scientific in their approach, but can we use them to predict a year in advance?! The question arose after an unusual break in the Texas heat. The last week of July was sunny and hot as is typical for the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. Summer had finally arrived after a rainy June and north winds into July. At least that was feeling as the near hundred degree temperatures began to heat everything up. Towards the end of July I noted to the younger workers that the clouds did not look right for the time of the year. Later that day my weather observations proved correct ... brief widely scattered rain. Now three days into August 2019 it seems a long-term pattern has emerged.

After more than a week of solid summer weather the rain today (8-3-19) prompted a look back at past weather patterns. Even then, this event had been noted in the ten-day forecast. Quite a testament to modern techonology. While the rain had been projected as far as 10 days in advance the chance of rain kept dropping. Last night it was projected at 20%. An astute forecaster would have factored in a sky full of cirrus clouds two days ago. And yesterday, high cumulus overcast. Atypical to say the least.

The summer started closer to normal after three very rainy months of May. This year the rainy June topped "talking about the weather". Not only in North Texas, but across the state. Less than a month ago my day job sent me to perennially dry region of West Texas. There too a rainy June and July produced a most unusual green landscape. Odd, although not unprecedented. According to one old rancher, the rain falls in West Texas into July. Never in August and September.

Breaks in the heat are not very common. So with an eye on the rain, I returned to my weather observations noted in "DFW Weather (2001-2005)". Local weather watchers know that August is generally dry in North Texas. It has the second lowest average monthly rainfall average, 2.13 inches (January 1st at 2.1"), according to the National Westher Service. The monthly rainfall average was my first stop. The next check was the year-by-year to get an idea how the rest of the summer would pan out ... 2001, 2002, 2003 ... above average rain in August despite the heatwaves in those years. Then 2004 a record rain in June ... noted at the bottom ... NON-STANDARD (non-std.) NORTH WIND in July and August. In 2003 an El Nino was noted ....... FAST FORWARD ...... 2019 same, same, same.

2005 was a record hurricane season with 26 named storms ... including HURRICANE KATRINA.

2020 ??? Four days after I posted this article NOAA announced that the 2019 Atlantic hurricane would likely become more active with the end of the El Nino cycle ... they may be a year early. Next year will likely be the concern.


(flow edit 8-14-19)
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